Handicapping Temple’s bowl odds

“There is no doubt that Temple will be in a bowl game.”
_ Steve Addazio

Only 14 more games remain in Bernard Pierce’s career at Temple (this year’s
bowl game and next’s year’s 13 games) and that thought seems to weigh heavy on
head coach Steve Addazio as the two share a hug on Friday afternoon.

Great photo by Mike Edwards

It’s been a long time since I’ve put some sheckles on a football game, but I could not help but noticing the score of Temple’s game today against visiting Kent State in the final moments.
Temple 34, Kent State 16.
Temple was a 17 1/2-point favorite.
The Owls won by 18.
“How good is Vegas?” I said.
Not as good as me, though. I predicted a 28-10 Temple win and the line fell right on that 18-point spread.
I don’t think Vegas does lines on handicapping bowls, but I’ll take a shot.
Temple’s got a 75 percent chance or BETTER of going to SOME bowl with an 8-4 record. Had the Owls lost, it would have been a 25 percent chance or LOWER of going to a bowl.

Here’s what I have:
KRAFT HUNGER BOWL _ Better than a 50 percent shot and I think this is where the Owls eventually land. Since the bowl is in San Francisco, I think they will land a California team (Cal?) to play Temple. Since the local angle takes care of the crowd, the KHB won’t be as keen on a team that brings a big following as one that gives them big East Coast TV ratings and Temple provides that. It’s a great story line, too, in that it could be a rematch of the 1979 Garden State Bowl, won by Temple.

NEW MEXICO BOWL _ Owls have a 40 percent chance of going here. Look for a Utah State vs. Temple matchup if that happens. Utah State brings the crowd, Temple brings the East Coast TV ratings.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL _ Owls have a 20 percent chance of heading to this one but I think the Boise people would like a team that brings a crowd and that would not apply to Temple. The Owls probably won’t travel more than 1,000 fans to Boise and you can blame that on the $825 round-trip airfare with at least two connections.
MILITARY BOWL _ The game, formerly the Eagle Bank Bowl, has good memories of Temple since the Owls brought 20,000 of their fans to the 2009 bowl. Still, the Military Bowl people seem to be keen on an Air Force vs. Conference USA matchup and that’s why I think Temple has only about a 10 percent chance here.
Other possibilities (less than five percent) include New Orleans and the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. I only throw those in because both bowls had representatives at today’s game.
Whatever, though, it appears because the Owls have legitimate star power (Bernard Pierce) and TV ratings in a large market coming off a three-game winning streak, they will be ticketed for somewhere.
Dec. 4 is Bowl Selection Sunday.
The Owls will know their destination well before then.
You can take that to the bank.

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28 thoughts on “Handicapping Temple’s bowl odds

  1. This coulda-shudda-woulda been a 11-12-13 win seasoning depending on how we played in the MC championship and the bowl game….

  2. I read your blog quite often. I was looking forward to you doing all the work and telling me who I am supposed to be rooting for this weekend. I know UCF needs to beat UTEP right now! I was also rooting against Pitt, but kinda want to see Rutgers go to the BCS game and they need Pitt to win. I figure Pitt will be team #5 from the Big East anyway. Now we need UConn, USF and Syracuse to miss out on bowl eligibility.

  3. … and you-know-who should've played you-know-what position to get to 11-12-13.Daz dropped the ball on that big decision.Now we sit and wait like Harry S Truman on Election Night 1948.

  4. I could go for that. The first time we played UCLA I really thought the level of talent they recruited was just above our overall talent with the exception of a few positions (RB, DE).Now I think across the board we match up much better because of the depth factor andn Golden recruiting a "better" class every year.We also had serious issues at QB in 2009 that have now been resolved is Chris Coyer plays in the bowl game, which undoubtedly he will.I've been hearing Cal or UCLA.Either one would be a bowl rematch for Temple and I would sign for that over winning a MAC title and having to play a Tulsa or a Sun Belt team in Mobile.Cal and UCLA are much more "sexy" matchups.

  5. Here's who to root FOR on Saturday:Ole MissWake ForestColorado StBaylor MarylandKentucky

  6. I forgot my weekly rant on the attendance:…ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?!? BEAUTIFUL WEATHER, DAY OFF, ALOT ON THE LINE AND NO ONE SHOWS UP?!?!?!!? If i was a recruit who had other schools of the same caliber of on the field product to temple knocking on my door, I would not want to come to temple, all things being equal, to play a big game in front of 16k after 25 (hopefully 26) wins in 3 years. How did we get here? Is temple just doomed to have an apathetic fanbase? How did this happen? why is the apathy so stubborn? do u know of any schools that went from 16k coming to big games to real success in terms of buts in the seats?

  7. Mike,also, can you tell me: Does temple and/or the Linc determine attendance based on tickets sold or people through the turnstiles?If you dont know, who would be the right person to call?

  8. Mike, I was at the game yesterday and have to say I'm more excited about CS graduating than any owl since me (but for very different reasons). I live in the bay area and would love to see the owls in sf, but for them to have a shot against Cal they need to have coyer under center. Keep up the great work on the blog.

  9. This is directly from Bill Bradshaw:Each person who enters the gate gets their ticket scanned.Once all of those tickets are scanned through the third quarter, that total number of people is added to the computerized attendance that appears at the end of the boxscore.It's Lincoln Financial Field scanning system, not Temple, that does this. Temple has no control over what numbers to announce as the attendance.That's why it always amuses me when I read a reporter write: "An announced crowd of" or "a crowd that looks smaller than the announced crowd of" blah-blah.This is not 1971 anymore. It's all done through the scanning system.Yeah, it looks like less than "announced" BECAUSE we're in a freaking 70,000 person stadium.It takes an "announced" crowd of 57K at the Penn State game to know that this scanning system is dead on. … Because I looked around during the game and I said this "looks" like about 57K (because the corners were the only empty spots of the stadium).Hope this helps.

  10. as far as Cal, they need Coyer under center and he will be.The West Coast has never seen anything like Bernard Pierce (well, maybe O.J. Simpson before he went crazy in the head) so enjoy.Heck, I had never seen anything like Bernard Pierce (Temple or otherwise) until his breakout freshman season.I hope he enjoys his final year at Temple next season.The pros and the money will always be there (and don't give me this crap about getting hurt, nobody's lost a pro career over getting hurt in their senior year).The Heisman Trophy won't.This kid is good enough to win the Heisman Trophy next year and what an achivement that would be for him especially and for a school like Temple additionally.

  11. Temple finished the year No. 1 in MAC attendance (three out of the last four years No. 1) and that was despite being handed two horrible Wednesday night dates and a Black Friday afternoon date.To me, the attendance is nowhere good enough but it would rank us in the upper half of Conference USA and about the middle of the Big East.We need to move on to CUSA pronto and forget trying to woo the Big East.We'd make up the $2.5 million exit fee in one year of increased CUSA attendance (they play on Saturdays almost exclusively) and TV money.

  12. I have to agree that the timeis now to move out of the MAC and if CUSA is our best option then let's take it. More bowl tie-ins and a better caliber of football. If this makes any sense I sometimes think that if you gear yourself to dominate the MAC like their old line teams you aren't as competitive against everyone else on a regular basis. I mean watching Temple play PSU, UConn, Maryland, Army and then watching Ohio or Miami(OH) its kind of like watching a US team play a Canadian team.

  13. Unfortunately, Temple's attendance on Friday is what it is. The student section was empty. The kids are off. If they had 5 or 6K students, that would have pushed attendance over 20,000.Overall, the average attendance was over 28K this year. Even if you take out the PSU game, the average attendance was over 23K. Almost a 3K increase over last year. It is a program on the rise and the attendance figures show that. remember they have only been to 1 bowl game in the last 30 years. If they have the same increase the next 2 years, they will be pushing 30K. Not bad. It will always look lousy in the Linc though. As for bowls, my money is on the military bowl. Conference USA will only have 5 bowl eligble teams and Houston will likely go to a BCS bowl. They won't have enough teams to send one to the Military Bowl.

  14. By my math, there could be as many as 80 bowl eligible teams. Those numbers don't look too good, especially considering the lack of help we got today. I will do some number crunching tonight at work and see what I come up with. Anything over 75 and I believe we are in real trouble, unless Mike knows something I am unaware of.

  15. I wouldn't worry too much about losing recruits based on attendance, the teams that Temple actually recruits against do about the same if not worse than us when it comes to attendance. It takes time; winning will cure everything, but it's going to have to be over the next couple of years, the day I have circled is the date the Owls host Notre Dame. If things keep on progressing the way they are now (and they will) that win over Notre Dame on that saturday afternoon in 2013 in front of a NBC television audience will be the tipping point for the true resurgence of Temple football. 9-4 this season to go along with the previous seasons winning records and the 10 or more in 2012 and the 10 or more plus the Notre Dame whupping in 2013 and these attendance issues will be solved. (An oncampus stadium wouldn't hurt either) Patience. We didn't get here overnight and we won't get where we want to be overnight.

  16. After this weekend there could be 72 bowl eligible teams, it's 70 as I type right now and 36 Bowls. A couple of the bowl eligible teams are our MAC's own Ball State whupped by Temple 42-0 if I recall and Eastern Michigan, they wouldn't get chosen over the Owls by their mothers' Bowl games. The 70-72 teams that are or will be eligible by the end of the weekend also includes the Miami Hurricanes who have already eliminated themselves from bowl consideration. Anyone worried about Temple not getting a bowl bid this season need to find something else to worry about. I'd bet my life on it. It might not be where everyone wants to go right now DC or San Francisco (how about that for two opposite ends of the spectrum)but there will be a bowl opponent to unleash BP upon. I'd actually settle for Detroit as long as a Big Ten team is the opponent and no I don't want a rematch with PSU, I'd rather not be a part of their baggage.

  17. your math is a little off. There are 35 bowls meaning 70 teams go to bowls. Right now there are 70 eligible teams. This does not include Miami or UCLA. UCLA will get the NCAA to sign a waiver to allow them to play in a bowl even though they will finish 6-7 because of the pac 12 championship game. There are still 6 more teams remaining to try to qualify. Texas Tech looks like a loser. So all we have left are the 4 big east schools and Hawaii. I am hoping we only add 2 of the 5 leaving us with 73. 70 eligible, UCLA, Syracuse/Pitt winner, Hawaii. It is all going to come down to USF and Uconn. At 73 it looks like we would get the nod over Ball St(6-6), Western Michigan(7-5), and Western Kentucky(7-5). Sun Belt has 4 bowl tie ins, but the Pizza Pizza bowl is only a backup if the Big 10 can't fulfill their bowl tie ins. They should be able to even if Michigan gets a bcs game.

  18. Okay 35 bowl games. 4 Big East teams with a chance to become eligible and two of them play each other(Syracuse and Pitt). Texas Tech didn't win they got rolled by Baylor. I already counted UCLA, as of Sunday morning we sit at 72 teams and 35 bowls. With 3 more possible from the Big East and Hawaii making it 4 which would give us 76 if those teams win next weekend minus the 3 I mentioned before that won't get in over us and I wouldn't be too worried about those Big East teams either. Still not worried.

  19. Dont you think all our program's woes would be solved if we changed our mascot/nickname from the Owls to the Fighting Picards or Fighting Jean-Luc Picards or just Jean-Luc Picards or Picards?I can see it now…: "On behalf of NBC, thanks for joining us from a sold out Lincoln Financial Field in beautiful Philadelphia. Final score: #12 Temple Fightin' Jean-Luc Picards, 48, #4 Notre Dame Fightin' Irish, 6. Next up: some crap "sports" event sponsored by Paul Mitchell….

  20. IMO, if you can get the lower bowl of the Linc filled consistently (ala the 'Nova game) I think most of the Temple base out there would be pretty happy with that. 30-35k in the Linc looks pretty good and provides a pretty good atmosphere even if the upper deck is blocked off. Having been to the last two Mayor's Cup games they were arguably among the most enjoyable Temple games I've been at…it was a great college atmosphere. I think Temple needs to work itself to that point first (consistently getting 30-35k in regular season games, occasionally popping 40 against Nova and the schools in the area) before we can talk about getting the big time crowds.I don't think CUSA will bring enough name teams in the mix to get attendance to that point, however…but I still think CUSA is an absolutely needed move since it is a step up in terms of program quality overall.This requires Temple spending money on promoting the program. TU should do some advertising on local TV (when's the last time you've seen Temple consistently promote their football program via ads on any local TV station or on CSN?) and should find a way to get a media partner to do a bit more with the Temple program…Temple Tuff was a good start but there needs to be a bit more "buzz" coming from the athletic department. I think if you promote the program as up-and-coming and, by the way, you get the chance to see a pretty good QB (Coyer) and a potential Heisman candidate if he comes back (Pierce) you can get more butts in the seats. That stuff takes time but it also requires Temple allocating some money into marketing the program.One last thing…do some arm twisting to get the games on FM…if WIP has no interest I'd have to think The Fanatic would be willing to take on Temple football on FM, basketball on AM/FM.

  21. conference USA here we come? two leading bowl sites have us going to the New Orleans Bowl…, i'd take that over San Fran any day!

  22. Schlabach from espn on the bowl projections page has the Owls taking on Arizona State in the Kraft Hunger Bowl—-not to bad if you ask me– and the devils will be ripe for the picking with an interim HC

  23. BBWA compass bowl:Temple vs. Rutgers … dream matchup to me. .. I think we would bury that team.Love to see that happen.A lot of moving parts in the next seven days to predict anything right now, though, unfortunately.

  24. Any take on the Daz leaving the owls after one season rumor reported on Philly.com? This would be a bummer and another reason the owls need to get into a legit conference fast.

  25. Once they see Daz lost to Bowling Green and Frank "I'll have another" Solich, they'll back off ….IMHO, Golden gave Daz his most talented team and Daz underachieved by not identifying the right QB from the get-go.(Heck, even Golden made that same mistake until he found Gerardi after a CS pick 6.)I think we beat Penn State with a dual-threat quarterback like Chris Coyer in there but Coyer had to be identified by the Villanova game for that to happen.Plus, the hook for Gerardi was too quick and the hook for Stewart never existed.Daz will stay and show he can recruit where the weather is 70 degrees on Nov. 28 and that was Philly today.

  26. Mike, agreed on all fronts. Daz took a more talented team than last year against an easier schedule and delivered the same regular season results. Add to this the fact he neither won the MAC east or beat PSU abd I think it can be viewed as underachieving. I can't even have the conversation regarding how he overlooks coyer while CS implodes the team. If he realizes he has that talent on the bench the owls are good for at least one more win with a more balanced offense.

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